Can We Get Back to "Normal"? The Economy & Property Prices

Restrictions are likely to ease in four-week increments which allows the National Cabinet to monitor the impacts of each change. The federal government mentions that a key indication of the economy reopening is when schools return back to normal. The governments five step process over six or so months aims to get Australia back to normal. The first step aimed at fighting the virus, the second aims at providing relief to Australian through financial support such as JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments. The third step aims at reopening the economy safely, and step four aims at building consumer and business confidence in order to allow for the economy to recover. The final step aims at using pro investment policies to reset the economy (ABC, 2020).

Although many have predicted a possible fall in property prices, however it does not mean much to young Australians, more than half of households aged under 60 could be renting in 20 years. Many are now suffering from job loss and rent payments which means they are still unable to purchase property (ABC, 2020). “House prices are set to bottom out by June next year, helped by improving affordability, but a recovery is likely to be held back by high unemployment that is expected to remain above 7 per cent until 2022, ANZ predicts”. Even though mortgage deferral serves to help the current situation, the economy may be strongly impacted for the coming years by the fall in the rental market, weaker household income and lower populational growth (AFR, 2020).

On-site Auction Bans Lifted in NSW and Updates On The Australian Property Market

Public On-site Auctions

The lifts on public and on-site auction bans are now in effect, and NSW’s government has decided to allow public auctions to go ahead from this coming weekend with Queensland to follow shortly. Initial figures from CoreLogic showed that 60% of 590 capital city homes were sold via online auctions this week, indicating a rise of 19 percentage points from last week’s 41.1%, with Sydney and Melbourne having a recorded 63% clearance rate. However, Domain recorded a lower clearance rate percentage, with Sydney at 50% and just a third of Melbourne homes selling. The Real Estate Institute of Queensland CEO Antonia Mercorella said the Queensland government had already started relaxing some restrictions and the return of on-site auctions gives the sellers hope it may boost the property market. From May 1st, up to six people including the real estate agent can attend an open home inspection, although boardroom and public open homes were still banned. The Western Australian government has also started relaxing some measures around open inspection, announcing last Sunday that up to 10 people at a time would be allowed to attend open homes (AFR, 2020).

The Australian Property Market

The shutdowns from the coronavirus and associated businesses have caused a downturn in the property market. Currently, the economy has experienced a rise in unemployment and a fall in wages, with an expectation of further deterioration. Other short-term rental accommodation businesses such as Airbnb have already been facing challenges due to the pandemic and many now are attempting to find longer-tern tenants. At the same time, many temporary visa holders are leaving Australia due to unemployment. Property vendors are facing a tough market, with discount property listings increasing in Sydney, from 5.7% to 13.1%, and Melbourne, from 2.8% to 10.7%. NAB’s chief economist Alan Oster believes that by the middle of the year unemployment will be higher than 10% and property prices will fall by 15%-30% (ABC 2020).

Removal Of Mortgage Loan-to-value Ratio (LVR) Restrictions

In October 2013, LVR restrictions were imposed as a counter-cyclical macro-prudential financial stability tool. As a part of the mortgage deferral scheme, May 1st, the Reserve Bank are removing mortgage loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions for 12 months, in order to lessen the impact on borrowers or lenders during the COVID-19 pandemic. This idea was decided after more than 70 submission from member of the public and industry responses on the proposal to remove LVR restrictions. Those who supported the response were locally incorporated banks because it allows them to support affected customers. Those against the policy were apprehensive due to the impact on the economy and the potential to cause financial instability. Mr.Bascand is not fearful of banks lending to high risk borrowers but is more fearful of banks becoming overly cautious. The Regulatory Impact Assessment shows that removing the restriction is a method of improving the flow of credit in the economy. At the same time, the action avoids any uncertainty around the implications of LVR limitations.